Scripture for this week:
1 Peter 5:5-6
In the same way, you who are younger, be subject to the elders. And all of you, clothe yourselves with humility toward one another, because God opposes the proud but gives grace to the humble. 6 And God will exalt you in due time, if you humble yourselves under his mighty hand
NET Bible
We had a most unusual men's prayer meeting this morning. Normally, a couple of hundred men meet to share and encourage one another and to pray together for our nation, city and families. It's normally an all male event where we can share freely without worrying about impressing our wives and daughters. But this morning was different. The main speaker was a woman; a wife, mother and daughter, but the subject was still men. She talked about her father and the influence that he had had in her life. She was blessed to have a father that cared for her, listened to her, and spent time with her. And in telling her story, she encouraged us all to be better fathers and grandfathers.
Interestingly, this week's scripture is 1 Peter 5:5-6, which talks about the relationship between young people and their elders. The apostle Peter, in this letter, encourages good leadership and good follower-ship. But what exactly makes a good leader? The speaker's father is an excellent example of a good leader. The primary thing that made an impact on this woman's life as a young girl, was that her father was there for her. He listened, he played with her and her siblings, he supported and encouraged her in her various activities, but mostly, he put her first. This is what Peter tells us. A good leader, one that is worthy to be followed wholeheartedly, is one who is humble.
Humility is not a word that you often associate with leaders in our modern age. A humble leader puts the needs of his people ahead of his own. A humble shepherd cares for his sheep, to see that they have all that they need to prosper. A humble elder is one who a young man can subject himself to, without fear that he will be abused or neglected. If we aspire to be good leaders, good fathers, good grandfathers, we need to be like our speaker's father. We need to be like Jesus, and put our people, our sons and daughters, our granddaughters and grandsons, ahead of ourselves, to put their needs ahead of our own.
Humbling yourself is not easy. It is not natural. It goes against the world order. It requires pain and sacrifice on our part, but it is essential. As Jesus said, in Luke 22:26
"Not so with you; instead the one who is greatest among you must become like the youngest, and the leader like the one who serves."
Let us all aspire to better leader, better husbands, better fathers; More humble men.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Monday, September 24, 2012
Why Psalms?
In this day and age, only the latest thing will do; the latest iPhone, the latest political philosophy, the latest fashion. So why would you possibly want to spend time in a book written some 3,000 years ago? To answer, let us examine the book of psalms itself. Why was it written? What benefits does it claim for itself? Why would a modern man want to read an ancient book? So to begin, let us start in the beginning:
Psalm 1
1 How blessed is the one who does not follow the advice of the wicked,
or stand in the pathway with sinners,
or sit in the assembly of scoffers!
2 Instead he finds pleasure in obeying the Lord s commands;
he meditates on his commands day and night.
3 He is like a a tree planted by flowing streams;
it yields its fruit at the proper time,
and its leaves never fall off.
He succeeds in everything he attempts.
4 Not so with the wicked!
Instead a they are like wind- driven chaff.
5 For this reason the wicked cannot withstand judgment,
nor can sinners join the assembly of the godly.
6 Certainly the Lord guards the way of the godly,
but the way of the wicked ends in destruction.
NET Bible
"Blessed is the man..." is the way that the King James version starts out. Do you want to be blessed? Would you like to find pleasure (verse 2)? Would you like to be strong as a tree (v.3)? Would you like to succeed (v.3)? Or would you rather be blown like dust in the wind (v.4) and be judged harshly (v.5)? Wouldn't it be better to guarded by the Lord (v.6)?
So, to put it in simple terms, the psalms claim to show you the way to lead a successful life, being blessed in this life, and learning how to please and worship the Lord. The emphasis in psalm 1 is really on man and how he lives, but the real answer to why the psalms were written is at the back of the book. Have you ever been stumped by a mystery book and been tempted to read the last chapter? Me too, but I'm usually too much a stickler for order to actually do it. But in this case, it's alright, as the end to the book gives us the real reason for its being:
Psalm 150
1 Praise the Lord!
Praise God in his sanctuary!
Praise him in the sky, which testifies to his strength!
2 Praise him for his mighty acts!
Praise him for his surpassing greatness!
3 Praise him with the blast of the horn!
Praise him with the lyre and the harp!
4 Praise him with the tambourine and with dancing!
Praise him with stringed instruments and the flute!
5 Praise him with loud cymbals!
Praise him with clanging cymbals!
6 Let everything that has breath praise the Lord!
Praise the Lord!
NET Bible
There are 6 verses in psalm 1, and 6 verses in psalm 150, but notice a major difference. Every verse of psalm 1 mentions man in one form or another, "the man", "he" , "the wicked", "the godly", etc. But look closely at psalm 150. How many I's, me's and he's are there? Not a single one! Psalms starts out talking about man (in the generic sense) and his relationship to God. But in the end, psalm 150 talks only about the Lord, and how He is to be worshiped. And what a variety of worship there is; horns (my favorite), dance, drums, cymbals, stringed instruments, flutes, basically anything that makes music can praise the Lord!
So the real message of psalms is this; you can learn to live right and be blessed, but to really find the purpose of your existence, learn to worship God. So that is why I read, pray, sing and meditate on the psalms. It's really a way of life, to live immersed in a book that leads you to your ultimate purpose in the universe. In many ways, life is just choir practice. Psalms is the choir book to show you how to get ready for eternity; praising and worshiping God with the elders and the angels, and the vast throng of heaven!
Rev 19:4 The twenty-four elders and the four living creatures threw themselves to the ground and worshiped God, who was seated on the throne, saying: "Amen! Hallelujah!"
...
Rev 19:6 The Wedding Celebration of the Lamb
Then I heard what sounded like the voice of a vast throng, like the roar of many waters and like loud crashes of thunder. They were shouting:
"Hallelujah!
For the Lord our God, the All-Powerful, reigns!
Rev 19:7 Let us rejoice and exult
and give him glory,
because the wedding celebration of the Lamb has come,
and his bride has made herself ready.
NET Bible
Amen
Psalm 1
1 How blessed is the one who does not follow the advice of the wicked,
or stand in the pathway with sinners,
or sit in the assembly of scoffers!
2 Instead he finds pleasure in obeying the Lord s commands;
he meditates on his commands day and night.
3 He is like a a tree planted by flowing streams;
it yields its fruit at the proper time,
and its leaves never fall off.
He succeeds in everything he attempts.
4 Not so with the wicked!
Instead a they are like wind- driven chaff.
5 For this reason the wicked cannot withstand judgment,
nor can sinners join the assembly of the godly.
6 Certainly the Lord guards the way of the godly,
but the way of the wicked ends in destruction.
NET Bible
"Blessed is the man..." is the way that the King James version starts out. Do you want to be blessed? Would you like to find pleasure (verse 2)? Would you like to be strong as a tree (v.3)? Would you like to succeed (v.3)? Or would you rather be blown like dust in the wind (v.4) and be judged harshly (v.5)? Wouldn't it be better to guarded by the Lord (v.6)?
So, to put it in simple terms, the psalms claim to show you the way to lead a successful life, being blessed in this life, and learning how to please and worship the Lord. The emphasis in psalm 1 is really on man and how he lives, but the real answer to why the psalms were written is at the back of the book. Have you ever been stumped by a mystery book and been tempted to read the last chapter? Me too, but I'm usually too much a stickler for order to actually do it. But in this case, it's alright, as the end to the book gives us the real reason for its being:
Psalm 150
1 Praise the Lord!
Praise God in his sanctuary!
Praise him in the sky, which testifies to his strength!
2 Praise him for his mighty acts!
Praise him for his surpassing greatness!
3 Praise him with the blast of the horn!
Praise him with the lyre and the harp!
4 Praise him with the tambourine and with dancing!
Praise him with stringed instruments and the flute!
5 Praise him with loud cymbals!
Praise him with clanging cymbals!
6 Let everything that has breath praise the Lord!
Praise the Lord!
NET Bible
There are 6 verses in psalm 1, and 6 verses in psalm 150, but notice a major difference. Every verse of psalm 1 mentions man in one form or another, "the man", "he" , "the wicked", "the godly", etc. But look closely at psalm 150. How many I's, me's and he's are there? Not a single one! Psalms starts out talking about man (in the generic sense) and his relationship to God. But in the end, psalm 150 talks only about the Lord, and how He is to be worshiped. And what a variety of worship there is; horns (my favorite), dance, drums, cymbals, stringed instruments, flutes, basically anything that makes music can praise the Lord!
So the real message of psalms is this; you can learn to live right and be blessed, but to really find the purpose of your existence, learn to worship God. So that is why I read, pray, sing and meditate on the psalms. It's really a way of life, to live immersed in a book that leads you to your ultimate purpose in the universe. In many ways, life is just choir practice. Psalms is the choir book to show you how to get ready for eternity; praising and worshiping God with the elders and the angels, and the vast throng of heaven!
Rev 19:4 The twenty-four elders and the four living creatures threw themselves to the ground and worshiped God, who was seated on the throne, saying: "Amen! Hallelujah!"
...
Rev 19:6 The Wedding Celebration of the Lamb
Then I heard what sounded like the voice of a vast throng, like the roar of many waters and like loud crashes of thunder. They were shouting:
"Hallelujah!
For the Lord our God, the All-Powerful, reigns!
Rev 19:7 Let us rejoice and exult
and give him glory,
because the wedding celebration of the Lamb has come,
and his bride has made herself ready.
NET Bible
Amen
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Psalm 37 and growing older
Psalms 37:25
I was once young, now I am old.
I have never seen a godly man abandoned,
or his children a forced to search for food.
We had an interesting discussion this week with one of the university student groups. There is nothing like discussions with bright young people to keep you young. However, discussing aging with a group of 20 somethings was a new experience. It is interesting to see how your perspective changes over the years. To the students, old age is something entirely foreign and several decades in the future. While to your intrepid baby boomer, well, many of those decades are in the past!
The focus of the discussion was God's plan for every stage of our life, including old age. We have been using Max Lucado's book, "He Still Moves Stones", to talk about how God deals with the various "stones" in our lives. In the case of growing old, "what do you think it will be like to grow old, and how will God be with you in the process?".
My contribution was Psalm 37. There is much encouragement in this Psalm. In the opening verses, the psalmist exhorts us to not fret. Commit your way to the Lord. Trust in the Lord. Do not fret... When we were young we may have said that we understood this, but only with the perspective of old age, can we truly appreciate, like King David did, the security we can have in trusting the Lord in all things. After you have faced a few lions and bears, and the occasional giant, you can be much more confident in saying, don't fret, "God's got it all under control!"
The central section of the psalm talks about evil men, the rich, the greedy, all the enemies of God. To a young man, facing these kinds of men and potential problems can be very daunting, but to the old man who has been through it all, with the Lord at his side, these are just mile markers along the road of life. Signposts that point to all the times when God saved and provided.
In the end, the psalmist tells us:
"I was once young, now I am old.
I have never seen a godly man abandoned,
or his children a forced to search for food. "
I have certainly found this to be true, and encouraged the young people to trust in God, because, in the end, He will always take care of you. It's important to listen to the still small voice of God as we journey through life, so that we don't have any regrets when we come to the end. The saddest thing to an old man is to have to ask "what if only I had ...". If you live a life in obedience to all that God tells you to do, then it is possible to come to a ripe old age, and look back without regrets. Are you doing that? If not, you can always start today, it's not too late...... yet.
I was once young, now I am old.
I have never seen a godly man abandoned,
or his children a forced to search for food.
We had an interesting discussion this week with one of the university student groups. There is nothing like discussions with bright young people to keep you young. However, discussing aging with a group of 20 somethings was a new experience. It is interesting to see how your perspective changes over the years. To the students, old age is something entirely foreign and several decades in the future. While to your intrepid baby boomer, well, many of those decades are in the past!
The focus of the discussion was God's plan for every stage of our life, including old age. We have been using Max Lucado's book, "He Still Moves Stones", to talk about how God deals with the various "stones" in our lives. In the case of growing old, "what do you think it will be like to grow old, and how will God be with you in the process?".
My contribution was Psalm 37. There is much encouragement in this Psalm. In the opening verses, the psalmist exhorts us to not fret. Commit your way to the Lord. Trust in the Lord. Do not fret... When we were young we may have said that we understood this, but only with the perspective of old age, can we truly appreciate, like King David did, the security we can have in trusting the Lord in all things. After you have faced a few lions and bears, and the occasional giant, you can be much more confident in saying, don't fret, "God's got it all under control!"
The central section of the psalm talks about evil men, the rich, the greedy, all the enemies of God. To a young man, facing these kinds of men and potential problems can be very daunting, but to the old man who has been through it all, with the Lord at his side, these are just mile markers along the road of life. Signposts that point to all the times when God saved and provided.
In the end, the psalmist tells us:
"I was once young, now I am old.
I have never seen a godly man abandoned,
or his children a forced to search for food. "
I have certainly found this to be true, and encouraged the young people to trust in God, because, in the end, He will always take care of you. It's important to listen to the still small voice of God as we journey through life, so that we don't have any regrets when we come to the end. The saddest thing to an old man is to have to ask "what if only I had ...". If you live a life in obedience to all that God tells you to do, then it is possible to come to a ripe old age, and look back without regrets. Are you doing that? If not, you can always start today, it's not too late...... yet.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Random Thoughts after 9/11
Scripture of the week:
John 13:34 “I give you a new
commandment—to love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also are to love one another. 13:35
Everyone
will know by this that you are my disciples—if you have love for one another.” NetBible
Today's headlines:
U.S. Ambassador Killed in Libia
National JournalCairo protesters scale U.S. Embassy wall, remove flag
USA Today
This morning at the Men of Mobile prayer meeting, Dr. Mark Foley spoke about growing up Baptist and of his lifelong journey to live an authentic Christian life, based on the Bible's teaching, and not just what he was taught in "Baptist World:". He also exhorted us with the urgency of living out the authentic Christian life now, in this country, in this world, in this time, where the Christian message is being opposed at every turn. He stated that we are in danger of losing our Christian heritage in this country if we do not step up now.
Today's headlines certainly stress the dangers to the American way of life that exist in many parts of the world today. It has not been so dangerous to be a Christian since the days of the Roman Colosseum when the Roman emperor fed the Christians to the lions.
So what is Jesus' answer to the world? John 13:34-35 quotes Jesus giving a new commandment, one that was as foreign to the Roman world in the first century as it is to our sophisticated world in the 21st century. "Love one another." But isn't the world in turmoil, and don't we have enemies all around? "By this they will know that you are my disciples, that you love one another?" But Jesus, you don't understand, the world is a mess! "Greater love has no man than that he lay down his life for his friends." But there is an election, and there are lies and slander on every side? "You may have all the great gifts, and faith to move mountains, but if you do not have love, you are nothing." But they killed our ambassador! They are rioting against us in the streets of Cairo. Why, even the democrats left your name out of their party platform last week. "Love one another." But.... "Love one another." ...... (silence)
I don't have any other answer. Yes, the world is a mess and we have enemies around, but Jesus is clear. If we really want to change the world, the only option is to love one another. How to do that? How to really make an impact? How to change hearts? .... I can only agree with Dr. Foley to try to read my Bible and endeavor to life a more authentic Christian life, loving my brother like Jesus does, whether he is Baptist, Catholic, Methodist, Muslim or Jew. Hey, it's not easy, but that's what Jesus did...
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Psalm 2
Enough of politics for awhile...
Perhaps my greatest passion is worshiping the Lord by reading, praying, studying and singing the Psalms. Psalms is sort of who I am. I've been helped on my worship journey by many great Bible teachers. One of the best was Ern Baxter. Brother Ern was a tall, lanky Canadian with a proper Canadian/English accent. He had started out as a worship piano player and became a great Bible teacher. One of my favorite teachings of his is one that he did on Psalm 2.
PSALM 2
The Reign of the Lord’s Anointed.
1 Why are the nations in an uproar
And the peoples devising a vain thing?
2 The kings of the earth take their stand
And the rulers take counsel together
Against the Lord and against His Anointed, saying,
3 “Let us tear their fetters apart
And cast away their cords from us!”
4 He who sits in the heavens laughs,
The Lord scoffs at them. NASB
Ern would open with a story from his boyhood. His uncles were also tall, with long arms, and when Ern was a little boy they would tease him and egg him into a fight. Ern would build up his childhood fury and attack his uncles with both fists flying. One of his uncles would then reach down with his long arm, placing a hand on Ern's forehead, holding him back, and they would laugh as poor Ern pounded nothing but air! It is this image that Ern would invoke to describe verses 1 thru 4. Can't you just see the kings and politicians of the world pontificating, scheming, and raging on the earth, as God sits on His throne in heaven and laughs! Ern's hearty laugh would then punctuate the story, and you could just hear the Lord laughing at those kings. Sometimes we get too caught up in the struggles and campaigns of the world. I'm as guilty as anyone of worrying about the state of the world. It's in times like these that you need to remember Psalm 2 and imagine the Lord sitting and laughing at the foolishness of our earthly leaders. It's not that these things aren't important and will certainly affect our future, but in the grand scheme of things, the Lord has everything under control, and His plans will prevail in the end. Psalms 2:6 “But as for Me, I have installed My King Upon Zion, My holy mountain.” The Kingdom of God was one of Ern's favorite topics. He could explain the sovereignty and goodness of God with a clarity of few other Bible teachers. And hearing Ern explain it, in his deep majestic voice, you could literally hear the voice of God, and feel His goodness. Brother Ern is gone now, gone to his eternal reward, but I can just see him, sitting in heaven with the king of kings and lord of lords, laughing at the silly rantings of the kings of the earth. Maybe we need to take time out and laugh a little too, as we worship and rejoice as the psalmist instructs us:
Psalms 2:11-12 Worship the Lord with reverence And rejoice with trembling. 12 Do homage to the Son, that He not become angry, and you perish in the way, For His wrath may soon be kindled. How blessed are all who take refuge in Him!
How blessed indeed... Amen
Ern would open with a story from his boyhood. His uncles were also tall, with long arms, and when Ern was a little boy they would tease him and egg him into a fight. Ern would build up his childhood fury and attack his uncles with both fists flying. One of his uncles would then reach down with his long arm, placing a hand on Ern's forehead, holding him back, and they would laugh as poor Ern pounded nothing but air! It is this image that Ern would invoke to describe verses 1 thru 4. Can't you just see the kings and politicians of the world pontificating, scheming, and raging on the earth, as God sits on His throne in heaven and laughs! Ern's hearty laugh would then punctuate the story, and you could just hear the Lord laughing at those kings. Sometimes we get too caught up in the struggles and campaigns of the world. I'm as guilty as anyone of worrying about the state of the world. It's in times like these that you need to remember Psalm 2 and imagine the Lord sitting and laughing at the foolishness of our earthly leaders. It's not that these things aren't important and will certainly affect our future, but in the grand scheme of things, the Lord has everything under control, and His plans will prevail in the end. Psalms 2:6 “But as for Me, I have installed My King Upon Zion, My holy mountain.” The Kingdom of God was one of Ern's favorite topics. He could explain the sovereignty and goodness of God with a clarity of few other Bible teachers. And hearing Ern explain it, in his deep majestic voice, you could literally hear the voice of God, and feel His goodness. Brother Ern is gone now, gone to his eternal reward, but I can just see him, sitting in heaven with the king of kings and lord of lords, laughing at the silly rantings of the kings of the earth. Maybe we need to take time out and laugh a little too, as we worship and rejoice as the psalmist instructs us:
Psalms 2:11-12 Worship the Lord with reverence And rejoice with trembling. 12 Do homage to the Son, that He not become angry, and you perish in the way, For His wrath may soon be kindled. How blessed are all who take refuge in Him!
How blessed indeed... Amen
Are We Better Off?
"Are we better off now than we were four years ago?" seems to be the question of the week. It seems like a simple enough questions. After all, it was good enough to get Reagan elected over Carter. But perhaps the question is a bit too simple. It's good to know if
things are better or worse now than they were four years ago, but perhaps a
better question would be "Will I be better off in four more years than I am
now?" or "Will my children and grandchildren be better off in 40 more
years than I am now?" So how to you answer these questions and predict
how well off we will be in the future? So how do you measure whether you are better off or not?
Most people will come up with a subjective answer to the question, and answer depending on whether they feel better or not. But let's see how you could answer the question more quantitatively.
(Now this may take a little math, so if you think it might be too painful, there is a nurse at the back of the room with Novocain!)
Lets start simple. Lets pick a metric (that's just something that you can measure). Lets pick something simple that is pretty easy to understand. For this example we will use the U.S. national debt. We can find that value for every year and examine the trends to see if it is going up or going down, and then decide if that is better or worse. Here are some figures for Gross Public Dept from 1997 to 2012:
We're going to start with something simple, so hang in there. Lets take to points, now and 4 years ago:
A) 2012 - Debt = $19.6 Trillion
B) 2008 - Dept = $12.5 Trillion
Now the difference is 7.1 Trillion dollars, which is an average change (7.1 / 4) of about 1.8 per year. Now this 1.8 trillion dollars per year is the simple rate of increase in the debt.
A rate of change is what we call a velocity in physics, and if you know where your are and your velocity, you can predict where you will be in a given amount of time in the future. For example, you can answer questions such as, "if you leave Chicago on the 9:10 train, traveling at 80 mph, can you get to Galesburg in time for the kickoff of the Monmouth game?" Back to our example, if the rate of change in the debt were to remain the same, we could predict the future dept just by adding 1.8 trillion dollars for every year in the future. Now this gets us some large numbers, but it's not the whole story.
Back in high school drivers ed., you probably had a guest speaker from the state police giving a talk on highway safety, and I'm sure the phrase "speed kills" came up. Now speed can be dangerous, but speed, or velocity, by itself is quite harmless. You can be walking at 4 mph, driving at 60 mph, or flying a plane at 300 mph, and be completely save and comfortable. The problem is if your car, traveling at 60 mph, hits a bridge abutment and your velocity suddenly decreases to 0 mph. This is acceleration, or change in velocity. It is actually the acceleration, not the speed that kills you. Even if the steering column hadn't driven straight through your heart when you hit the bridge abutment, the g forces of accelerating from 60 mph to 0 mph in a few milliseconds would have cause fatal damage to your body.
Back to economics: If we look at the debt figures again, we will note that the dept is not only increasing, but the rate of change is also changing, which is an acceleration:
This is probably easier to see as a chart (thanks to the Heritage Foundation)
http://www.heritage.org/federalbudget/increases-us-debt-limit
Now even a cursory glance at this chart tells us that we are in real trouble. The national debt is not only increasing, but the increase is accelerating. This is what physicists call an exponential curve. It looks bad, but how bad is it? To answer that you need to ask another question, "How do we pay the national debt?" The simple answer is that the Gross National Product (GNP) is the sum total of every dollar earned by Americans in a given year. Some portion of this is paid to the federal treasury as taxes and some portion of that is available to pay on the national debt. Now without getting into a lot of math, just imagine what will happen if the debt continues to accelerate in the exponential curve you see above, and the GNP stays about the same or increases only slightly. At some point the debt will get so large that there will not be enough dollars in the GNP to pay the debt. Imagine that every dollar earned by you and all other Americans goes to the government to pay the debt, and there is nothing left over for food, clothing and shelter, and the government won't have any left over either for welfare, food stamps or other services. Obviously, that is not sustainable, and the government would probably have collapsed sometime before that. Goodbye USofA...
At this point the professor states "it is intuitively obvious to the casual observer that...", well I'll let you decide. Are you better off that you were four years ago, and will you be better off in another four years if the same policies are left in place? Will there even be a United States of America for your children and grandchildren in 40 years if these current policies are kept in place? You decide, and vote....
and remember "speed is dangerous, but acceleration kills".
Most people will come up with a subjective answer to the question, and answer depending on whether they feel better or not. But let's see how you could answer the question more quantitatively.
(Now this may take a little math, so if you think it might be too painful, there is a nurse at the back of the room with Novocain!)
Lets start simple. Lets pick a metric (that's just something that you can measure). Lets pick something simple that is pretty easy to understand. For this example we will use the U.S. national debt. We can find that value for every year and examine the trends to see if it is going up or going down, and then decide if that is better or worse. Here are some figures for Gross Public Dept from 1997 to 2012:
| Year | Administration | Gross Public Debt-total $ billion nominal |
| 1997 | Clinton-2.1 | 6,590.71 |
| 1998 | Clinton-2.2 | 6,761.75 |
| 1999 | Clinton-2.3 | 6,974.78 |
| 2000 | Clinton-2.4 | 7,080.52 |
| 2001 | Bush- 1.1 | 7,320.74 |
| 2002 | Bush- 1.2 | 7,879.78 |
| 2003 | Bush- 1.3 | 8,578.76 |
| 2004 | Bush- 1.4 | 9,331.24 |
| 2005 | Bush- 2.1 | 9,990.33 |
| 2006 | Bush- 2.2 | 10,655.37 |
| 2007 | Bush- 2.3 | 11,355.45 |
| 2008 | Bush- 2.4 | 12,538.60 |
| 2009 | Obama- 1.1 | 14,559.52 |
| 2010 | Obama- 1.2 | 16,412.91 |
| 2011 | Obama- 1.3 | 18,338.96 |
| 2012 | Obama- 1.4 | 19,459.58 |
We're going to start with something simple, so hang in there. Lets take to points, now and 4 years ago:
A) 2012 - Debt = $19.6 Trillion
B) 2008 - Dept = $12.5 Trillion
Now the difference is 7.1 Trillion dollars, which is an average change (7.1 / 4) of about 1.8 per year. Now this 1.8 trillion dollars per year is the simple rate of increase in the debt.
A rate of change is what we call a velocity in physics, and if you know where your are and your velocity, you can predict where you will be in a given amount of time in the future. For example, you can answer questions such as, "if you leave Chicago on the 9:10 train, traveling at 80 mph, can you get to Galesburg in time for the kickoff of the Monmouth game?" Back to our example, if the rate of change in the debt were to remain the same, we could predict the future dept just by adding 1.8 trillion dollars for every year in the future. Now this gets us some large numbers, but it's not the whole story.
Back in high school drivers ed., you probably had a guest speaker from the state police giving a talk on highway safety, and I'm sure the phrase "speed kills" came up. Now speed can be dangerous, but speed, or velocity, by itself is quite harmless. You can be walking at 4 mph, driving at 60 mph, or flying a plane at 300 mph, and be completely save and comfortable. The problem is if your car, traveling at 60 mph, hits a bridge abutment and your velocity suddenly decreases to 0 mph. This is acceleration, or change in velocity. It is actually the acceleration, not the speed that kills you. Even if the steering column hadn't driven straight through your heart when you hit the bridge abutment, the g forces of accelerating from 60 mph to 0 mph in a few milliseconds would have cause fatal damage to your body.
Back to economics: If we look at the debt figures again, we will note that the dept is not only increasing, but the rate of change is also changing, which is an acceleration:
| Year | Administration | Gross Public Debt-total $ billion nominal | Net increase (decrease) | % Increase | |
| 2001 | Bush- 1.1 | 7,320.74 | 240.22 | 3.4% | |
| 2002 | Bush- 1.2 | 7,879.78 | 559.04 | 7.6% | |
| 2003 | Bush- 1.3 | 8,578.76 | 698.98 | 8.9% | |
| 2004 | Bush- 1.4 | 9,331.24 | 752.48 | 8.8% | |
| 2005 | Bush- 2.1 | 9,990.33 | 659.09 | 7.1% | |
| 2006 | Bush- 2.2 | 10,655.37 | 665.04 | 6.7% | |
| 2007 | Bush- 2.3 | 11,355.45 | 700.08 | 6.6% | |
| 2008 | Bush- 2.4 | 12,538.60 | 1,183.15 | 10.4% | |
| 2009 | Obama- 1.1 | 14,559.52 | 2,020.92 | 16.1% | |
| 2010 | Obama- 1.2 | 16,412.91 | 1,853.39 | 12.7% | |
| 2011 | Obama- 1.3 | 18,338.96 | 1,926.05 | 11.7% | |
| 2012 | Obama- 1.4 | 19,459.58 | 1,120.62 | 6.1% |
This is probably easier to see as a chart (thanks to the Heritage Foundation)
http://www.heritage.org/federalbudget/increases-us-debt-limit
Now even a cursory glance at this chart tells us that we are in real trouble. The national debt is not only increasing, but the increase is accelerating. This is what physicists call an exponential curve. It looks bad, but how bad is it? To answer that you need to ask another question, "How do we pay the national debt?" The simple answer is that the Gross National Product (GNP) is the sum total of every dollar earned by Americans in a given year. Some portion of this is paid to the federal treasury as taxes and some portion of that is available to pay on the national debt. Now without getting into a lot of math, just imagine what will happen if the debt continues to accelerate in the exponential curve you see above, and the GNP stays about the same or increases only slightly. At some point the debt will get so large that there will not be enough dollars in the GNP to pay the debt. Imagine that every dollar earned by you and all other Americans goes to the government to pay the debt, and there is nothing left over for food, clothing and shelter, and the government won't have any left over either for welfare, food stamps or other services. Obviously, that is not sustainable, and the government would probably have collapsed sometime before that. Goodbye USofA...
At this point the professor states "it is intuitively obvious to the casual observer that...", well I'll let you decide. Are you better off that you were four years ago, and will you be better off in another four years if the same policies are left in place? Will there even be a United States of America for your children and grandchildren in 40 years if these current policies are kept in place? You decide, and vote....
and remember "speed is dangerous, but acceleration kills".
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
What is Truth?
Pilate's question to Jesus in John 18:38 is certainly relevant to this political season.
John 18:38a Pilate said to Him, “What is truth?”
Everyone running for office loudly proclaims that they are telling the truth, but sad experience teaches us that this is most often not the case. In one case this weekend, California Democratic Party chair John Burton may have told more of the truth than he intended when he accused the Republicans of using Joseph Goebbels "Big Lie" tactic. For those of you that don't recall your German history, Goebbels was the Nazi's propaganda minister, and was famous for his tactic for telling the Big Lie. If you tell it loud enough and long enough, people will believe anything. And indeed, Goebbels was able to convince the Jews to voluntarily move into the ghettos and get on the trains. They gave up without a fight because they believed the big lie.
In the case of our Democrat party official, I think this is a case of him accusing the opposition of exactly what he is planning to do. It was a Freudian slip, as it were, revealing more about what he is planning to do than what the Republicans are actually a doing.
But the real question is "what is truth" and how do we know it when we hear it? I think another of Jesus' admonitions is helpful here. In Matthew 7, Jesus tells us to examine a person's fruit, not his words alone.
Matthew 7:16-17
You will know them by their fruits. Grapes are not gathered from thorn bushes nor figs from thistles, are they? 17 So every good tree bears good fruit, but the bad tree bears bad fruit.
That is, what is it that they are doing, or have done, not just what are they promising to do. This matches well with the scientific method as well. A common saying among scientists is, that if a theory doesn't match up to experimental observation, then it is wrong. It doesn't matter how good and reasonable it sounds, if it doesn't match real world results, then it is false.
In the matter of politics, truth is a little harder to discern, but there still is plenty of real world evidence if you just examine things closely:
- How many Americans are employed now? (and don't just look at the official government unemployment figures which are adjusted for all sorts of factors)
- How much is your house and 401k worth now?
- How many babies are bing born into intact families with both father and mother?
- How many babies are being aborted?
- What is the graduation rate at your local high school?
- What is the total American debt? How about the deficit in the current budget (if there actually were one passed by the Senate!)
There are plenty of other questions that you can ask, but you get the idea. Look at the facts and ask yourself how the various candidates have affected them, for better or worse. You've got to look past the political rhetoric and look at the actual track record of the various candidates. Don't be taken in by the big lie. And especially don't judge a candidate just by his race or his party. Be wise, Americans!
Matthew 10:16
16 “Behold, I am sending you out as sheep in the midst of wolves, so be wise as serpents and innocent as doves.
Jesus
John 18:38a Pilate said to Him, “What is truth?”
Everyone running for office loudly proclaims that they are telling the truth, but sad experience teaches us that this is most often not the case. In one case this weekend, California Democratic Party chair John Burton may have told more of the truth than he intended when he accused the Republicans of using Joseph Goebbels "Big Lie" tactic. For those of you that don't recall your German history, Goebbels was the Nazi's propaganda minister, and was famous for his tactic for telling the Big Lie. If you tell it loud enough and long enough, people will believe anything. And indeed, Goebbels was able to convince the Jews to voluntarily move into the ghettos and get on the trains. They gave up without a fight because they believed the big lie.
In the case of our Democrat party official, I think this is a case of him accusing the opposition of exactly what he is planning to do. It was a Freudian slip, as it were, revealing more about what he is planning to do than what the Republicans are actually a doing.
But the real question is "what is truth" and how do we know it when we hear it? I think another of Jesus' admonitions is helpful here. In Matthew 7, Jesus tells us to examine a person's fruit, not his words alone.
Matthew 7:16-17
You will know them by their fruits. Grapes are not gathered from thorn bushes nor figs from thistles, are they? 17 So every good tree bears good fruit, but the bad tree bears bad fruit.
That is, what is it that they are doing, or have done, not just what are they promising to do. This matches well with the scientific method as well. A common saying among scientists is, that if a theory doesn't match up to experimental observation, then it is wrong. It doesn't matter how good and reasonable it sounds, if it doesn't match real world results, then it is false.
In the matter of politics, truth is a little harder to discern, but there still is plenty of real world evidence if you just examine things closely:
- How many Americans are employed now? (and don't just look at the official government unemployment figures which are adjusted for all sorts of factors)
- How much is your house and 401k worth now?
- How many babies are bing born into intact families with both father and mother?
- How many babies are being aborted?
- What is the graduation rate at your local high school?
- What is the total American debt? How about the deficit in the current budget (if there actually were one passed by the Senate!)
There are plenty of other questions that you can ask, but you get the idea. Look at the facts and ask yourself how the various candidates have affected them, for better or worse. You've got to look past the political rhetoric and look at the actual track record of the various candidates. Don't be taken in by the big lie. And especially don't judge a candidate just by his race or his party. Be wise, Americans!
Matthew 10:16
16 “Behold, I am sending you out as sheep in the midst of wolves, so be wise as serpents and innocent as doves.
Jesus
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